Absorption of Supply In an Uptrend Near Moving Averages
Markets are pulling back towards their rising 20 day moving averages; $SPY 139.02 $IWM 82.09 $SMH 34.90 and the $XLF (not shown) has its 20 dma at 1538 which is just below the key level of support found near 1545. The $QQQ remains the most resilient and its 20 dma is further away at 66.20 and that is just below key support near 66.40.
There is no magic support found at moving averages, the value is to watch for potential shift in pressure at the widely watched averages as they often do become support (in an uptrend) for the simple reason that many participants are watching the action around them. Shorts will often cover near an important moving average, long profit takers will discontinue selling and sideline cash will start to nibble long. This process brings about the equilibrium on shorter term timeframes as supply is absorbed and demand begins to grow. As the market (stock) stabilizes, sellers hold off for higher prices, shorts begin to cover, buyers get more aggressive, etc. It is the psychology which brings about the transition from a market dominated by supply to demand and higher prices. We dont have the evidence of a turn back up yet, but it is time to start looking for the clues.