The chart below is complete fiction beyond the close at 68.80 on Thursday. I have sketched in 4 possible scenarios for trading tomorrow. See explainations below the chart.
Scenario 1- Red Line
The market gaps significantly higher (near the 5DMA) digests the move a bit and then rockets higher after a brief dip below the VWAP. The market continues higher into the close as shorts scramble to cover and new cash comes in from the sidelines.
Scenario 2- Blue Line
The market gaps higher, excited longs chase the strength but the market slowly churns and breaks below the daily VWAP which causes longs to liquidate and shorts (including me at this point) pile in to exploit the further weakness. In this scenario prices close near the low and the market continues to be vulnerable to this tortuous selloff. See song below.
Scenario 3- Black Line
The Market gaps down towards S1 and buyers immediately show up and pressure shorts to cover on “bad news” The market pauses briefly below daily pivot (which is also prior support from 3/3 which was resistance on 3/5) After the brief consolidation which takes prices below VWAP, buyers re-emerge and pressure shorts into the close.
Scenario 4- Green Line
This is the one I like best in spite of small long position. The market gaps down near S1 rallies for about 10 minutes then falls below VWAP and takes out the morning low. This lower low occurs on lighter volume and the market recovers back above VWAP (this is where I load up with stops below morning low). Shorts realize they had their chance to buy at low prices, they chase and that brings sidelined cash to the party. The market goes positive, stalls a bit, sucks in more shorts then rockets higher into the close.
I am hoping for one of the bullish outcomes, but gotta keep an open mind to all outcomes because bear markets continue on broken hope. Any of these scenarios is possible or the market could do something completely outside of what I have outlined. The point is to be prepared for anything, forget what YOU think of the jobs number, listen to the market. We are down at important levels here and if the market is going to experience a BEAR MARKET RALLY, this is a likely area where it will emerge from. When I trade tomorrow I will have an open mind. VWAP will be a big factor in how I decide to trade as it will tell me in real time who (buyers or sellers) has control of the session. More important than VWAP, economic numbers, pivot levels, moving averages, etc. will be the same things that keep traders alive to pay increasing taxes (editorial comment) each day; EMOTIONAL CONTROL, POSITION SIZING, RISK MANAGEMENT AND DISCIPLINE.
Nothing here is meant as a prediction it is just meant to show the thought process at an important level.
Boulevard of Broken Dreams seems appropriate until tomorrow…