Art Cashin was just mentioning a possible capitulation scenario on CNBC. He thought some hard selling today and tomorrow morning would bring the Dow back below 10,000 and then setup a “massive reversal”. I think his scenario makes sense for a TRADABLE bounce. The chart below shows the .618 retracement of the 2002 lows to the 2007 highs, which is found near 9,800. If you are looking to trade a bounce do not buy until there is evidence of a turn developing on the short term timeframes.

Here’s a picture from my Alaska trip, I didn’t think of the market at all while on vacation.