Monday, March 31, 2025 — continued selling confirms this market remains in a downtrend, with the S&P 500 undercutting prior lows before bouncing above the daily VWAP and anchor off the low. Still, we’re below a declining 5-, 20-, and 50-day moving average, and this remains a counter-trend bounce at best, not a reversal. The NASDAQ and Russell look equally weak, and while very short-term buyers may find small trades, the broader trend is clearly lower. Semiconductors and Nvidia continue to do what they’re “supposed to” in a downtrend — lower highs and lower lows — and biotechs remain laughably weak. Financials, bonds, and energy offer little to be excited about; strength is fleeting, and bounces are suspect. Tesla, Palantir, MAGS, Dell, WAY, and Uber are broken or failing setups. Don’t fall for talk of “relative strength” in names like ZS or MGTX — in a bearish market, that’s just a delay before more selling. GEN, Celsius, Upwork, and Qualcomm had no trades due to gaps or invalid setups. EAT looks like one of the better short opportunities, possibly continuing toward daily S2. As always, trust price action, not hope — the market is doing what it should in a downtrend.
