Thursday, March 27, 2025 - Markets pulled back on Wednesday, and supply at the anchor from the high has finally shown itself—though it wasn’t easy, with price pushing a few points above it before fading. The key breakdown was through the week-to-date VWAP, and as noted, staying below that level for more than 15 minutes signaled that sellers were in control, likely driving price toward the anchor from Friday’s low near 570. There are multiple ways to participate—SPXU, SH, puts, or shorting SPY—but the main idea is that we now have lower highs and lower lows below the daily, two-day, and week-to-date VWAPs. The NASDAQ also broke below its weekly anchor, and semiconductors look particularly weak, rejected at the two-year anchor, with the weekly chart suggesting more potential downside. Biotechs remain a mess, financials are surprisingly strong, and Palantir is pulling back to key levels, but nothing looks compelling enough for aggressive buying. Nvidia is broken, now undercutting the month-to-date anchor—maybe due for a bounce, but no confirmation yet. Stocks like VEEV, DVAX, MGTX, and ALKS are all off the list, as setups continue to deteriorate. The only real standouts were McDonald's, which may have offered a brief two-minute trade opportunity, and Tandem, which found temporary support at the month-to-date anchor. But overall, trust in this market remains low, and until the tape shows real improvement, it’s all about tight risk management, quick profits, and patience.
