S&P 500 Analysis for Thursday 2-4-10

The SPY backed off the 38.2% retracement level of the range for the year and has carved out a higher low above the rising 5 day moving average, but the upside action remains difficult to trust.  Tomorrow is looking like a pivotal day, if the higher low (~109.40) and the rising 5DMA (~109.20) can hold as support then another challenge of 110.60 looks reasonable.  Above 110.60, short sellers could panic and drive the market up towards the 111.39 level which is the December 31 low as well as the approximate 50% retracement of the range.  Be sure to keep an eye on the QQQQ as it is making a lighter volume move to prior support at 44, a failure of the Qs would likely lead to SPY weakness.