S&P 500 Analysis for 1-26-10

The SPY experienced a bounce from oversold levels on Monday, but the upside action was unconvincing. There was a late day push to new highs for the day but it failed at the 2 day VWAP and then experienced a weak close. The market remains fragile and with it below the declining 5 day moving average any long side trades should be kept to daytrades only. A test of the lows from last week seems likely and if the 109 level fails to hold as support then a test of the 100 day MA ~108.78 and the trendline (not shown) which connects from the mid- August lows seems likely, the trendline is in the approximate location as the 100 DMA. This market needs to settle down and establish firm support before most long positions can be trusted again.