S&P 500 Morning Analysis 12/14/09

The SPY added to its gains on Friday and it is once again approaching the high end of the 5 week range. Notice how the 5 (red) 10 (blue) and 20 (green) moving averages are tightly clustered together just above the mid point of the range, this action suggests that we will soon see a resolution of the range and with the MA’s heading higher and the primary trend being up, odds favor an upside breakout. Odds favor should not be confused with “will break out”, if the market breaks and holds below 110.20 we will have to become more defensive.