S&P 500 Morning Analysis 10/1/09

The uptrend line from the July low has been tested twice in the last week and has held so far but trendlines, like any support level, become weaker with more frequent tests. The uptrend on a daily timeframe remains intact, but intermediate term we have a lower high and a break below 104 would create a lower low. It is tough to say how much of yesterday’s large volume and volatility was due to end of quarter activities, but I am reminded of a quote from George Soros “volatility peaks at turning points and diminishes with trend” The market is sending mixed messages across various timeframes which means traders should maintain a shorter term focus until the market gives us clearer direction.