How Far Could a Rally Go?

From the high of 128.00 on 9/19/08 to yesterday’s low of 96.81, the SPY has declined 31.19 points or 24.36% which is greater than the 18.85% average decline during the 2000-2003 bear market, but there were also two larger declines during that time SEE TABLE

The average bounce saw the market recover 73% of the average decline. IF yesterday was a low and IF the market saw a similar snapback rally, the SPY could be in for a rally up to ~ 119.51 (31.19 x.73= 22.7 points which is added to 96.81)

Job number one is to listen to the market and manage risk.