Understanding the Current Market Situation

A Glance at Trading View

Our primary tool today is Trading View, where we’re focusing on 65-minute bars to give us six equal periods per trading day. Today, we’re paying special attention to the five-day moving average, that unmistakable orange line on our charts.

Previously, our markets presented a series of lower highs and lower lows characterized by a declining five-day moving average. This pattern led to a cautious, “guilty until proven innocent” stance on recent market rallies. However, a reversal has been in the making, led by the semiconductors sector.

Semiconductors Leading the Charge

In a noteworthy turn of events, semiconductors took the helm. Despite facing supply challenges at the month-to-date anchor—represented by the black line—the sector demonstrated resilience. The progress made by semiconductors was pivotal, ultimately benefiting the broader market including the S&P 500.

S&P 500 and Key Anchors

Moving to the S&P 500, yesterday presented a challenge as it got rejected at the month-to-date anchor, but the critical pullback found support at the five-day moving average. This confluence of support zones fostered an environment conducive for buyers.

Today’s Market Momentum

Where Do We Stand Today?

The upward movement we’ve experienced raises the vital question: Can this momentum sustain itself? While today’s bullish push provides a buffer against an aggressive sell-off following the Federal Reserve meeting, we must remain vigilant against the lows from the previous day.

Given this security, a brief decline could be brushed off if followed by a quick rebound. This setup suggests the potential for the market to test the anchor from previous highs.

Examining Major Indices

NASDAQ: A Slightly Weaker Position

The NASDAQ finds itself in a similar but slightly weaker position. Unlike the previous trading day where it failed to maintain the five-day moving average, today, the focus lands around an approximate 472 and a half. Should the market briefly dip below this level, be wary of a prolonged stay that could hint at renewed selling pressure.

Russell 2000: Holding Firm

On a brighter note, the Russell 2000 exhibited strong resilience by maintaining a crucial level, flipping prior resistance back into support. With a rising five-day moving average aligning with upward anchors, the 201-202 range emerges as a key threshold for upcoming trades.

Crypto Corner: Bitcoin and Ethereum Outlook

Bitcoin: Range-Bound and Cautious

Shifting gears to cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin continues to hover within its established range. After breaking support from the election anchor, characterized by the orange line, a clear downtrend persists, marked by lower highs and lower lows.

While an upward squeeze to about 92 could be a lucrative short-term trade, it’s essential to remember this occurs within a larger downtrend context. Investors should be cautious and prepared for a resistance test in this area.

Ethereum and Others: Still Reeling from Downtrends

Similar sentiments echo for Ethereum and Solana. Both are struggling to counter the prevailing downward trajectory, where the declines overshadow any interim rallies. Such patterns confirm a challenging environment for any optimistic outlook on these cryptocurrencies.

In-Depth Look at Futures and Key Stocks

S&P 500 Futures: A Daily Observation

Daily insights on S&P 500 futures shared via our Twitter and StockTwits platforms consistently highlight how the anchor from the low has effectively found buyers. Despite minor fluctuations, the overall control remains with buyers, offering needed cushioning ahead of potentially volatile moments.

TC 2000 and Equities Analysis

Utilizing the TC 2000 platform, we delve deeper into equities analysis. Looking at the S&P, it is evident that multiple moving averages—20, 50, and 200 days—are currently in decline, raising questions on the sustainability of a bullish reversal.

Individual Stocks: Tesla, Palantir, and More

Tesla: Stuck in a Downtrend

Tesla remains ensnared in its downward march. Despite an interim period of neutrality observed over a recent 30-point range, the overarching trend does not favor a bullish breakout, and an upgrade today is insufficient to disrupt this trend. Investors must be cautious and aware of the contextual five-day moving average.

Palantir: Potential for a Future Bounce?

Palantir continues to draw interest despite approaching critical supports post-election and subsequent gaps. With a flattening 20-day moving average forecasted, should the stability hold, the possibility of a promising rally emerges. However, it’s essential to remember we are currently navigating a choppy terrain.

SMCI: Rally Cautions Persist

A recurring theme is apparent for SMCI—distrust rallies when countered by declining 200-day moving averages. While a rising 50-day moving average provides some support, the broader picture remains unconvincing for sustained investment.

The Tech Giants: Nvidia, Apple, AMD

Nvidia: On the Edge of a Rally?

Formerly leading Nvidia is now sought after predominantly for deciphering a potential reversal. While short-term levels offer guidance, sustaining moves over 114 is crucial to averting another downturn. Observers should prepare for test scenarios on both higher and lower ends of its current band.

Apple, AMD: Mixed Signals

Apple, post-200 day moving average tests, shows little bounce potential, while AMD offers a classic example of cumulative declines over rallies, indicating retention of a bearish pattern. For those eyeing investments, understanding these dynamics is essential for informed decisions.

Conclusion: Influences and Insights

Keeping an eye on the larger narrative of market patterns is essential, particularly as the Federal Reserve cues loom large today. Prepare for variable responses and strategize with scenarios in mind to avert being stuck in unfavorable positions. This adaptability remains crucial as we navigate the complex landscape of both equities and cryptocurrencies.

For more regular updates, you can follow Brian’s X/Twitter for daily insights or explore more extensively with Brian’s X subscription at $10/month.

“The sum of the declines should never exceed the sum of the rallies if a true bull run is meant to be sustained.” — Market Insights