Oil Futures Analysis

Let’s kick things off with oil, which is up a solid 2.5% today. Here’s what’s standing out:

Zooming In: 2-Minute Action

On a tighter 2-minute chart, oil futures showed a gap up at the open, hit resistance around $78.30, and then got smacked right back down below the daily VWAP (volume weighted average price).

“You read headlines, you would expect it to be higher here. But only price pays. That’s why we listen to the message of the market and listen to price action.”

Bottom line: Oil is fighting with a big resistance. Don’t blindly believe the news—let the chart talk.

A Structural Shift?

There was a pretty convincing bear trap in oil down around $68.70. As long as oil stays above that, I still think we could be looking at a real shift toward a longer-term uptrend.

Spotting Trends: The Art of Anchored VWAP

Let’s pause for a minute and highlight something I wrote about a lot: anchored VWAP. It’s a killer tool for understanding trend shifts, bounce trades, and where buyers or sellers might step in.

Rules of Thumb:

• Don’t buy just because price touches the VWAP. Often it’ll touch, then keep falling.
• Instead, buy when you see strength after the touch and bounce.
• Set where you put your stop is key: If you get a nice rally away from VWAP, trail your stop up under each new pullback. If buyers lose control, don’t be afraid to flip your thesis and look for a short if price stays below the VWAP.
• If price bounces from VWAP → set stop below last low
• If price breaks down and consolidates under VWAP → look for shorts

Crypto Check-In: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and More

Let’s talk Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana because—let’s be honest—crypto always brings the fireworks.

Bitcoin

I’ll be straight: On Friday, I wasn’t feeling great about crypto. Bitcoin was losing steam, and by today, it came down to the April 9th anchor area.

VWAP Watch: Two VWAP levels are marking the move. That area’s important!

I picked up BTC at $98,420 (yeah, that’s the meme number). Honestly, the only market where buying the dip makes sense to me is Bitcoin and a couple of other major cryptos.

Now What?
We’re running right up against an old support area (now resistance). I’m up $2k on that buy.
The real level I want? Down around $93k–$94k, where a bunch of major anchors line up (election, prior year high, YTD, etc.).

Measured Move Math: If the top was $110k and recent low was $102k, a mental projection gets us toward $94k (which, hey, lines up with those anchors).

So, I already sold a chunk up here. I’ll rebuy if we actually see that $94k zone.

Ethereum

Picked up some ETH at $2,212 since it tagged the April 7th anchor and an old high anchor—but not loving it as much as BTC. It’s holding near year-to-date support that could flip into resistance, so it’s a short leash for me.

Solana

Not interested. Outright weaker compared to BTC and ETH.

S&P & Nasdaq Futures: Gap Psychology and Trade Ideas

Let’s take a look at futures now.
S&P (ES) and Nasdaq (NQ) are both down about 0.5%.

• Oil gapped up at the open and immediately sellers stepped in.
• Equities gapped down, and buyers immediately showed up.
• It’s the classic “buy weakness in stocks, sell strength in oil” setup.

Trade Plan: The Anchored VWAP Playbook

Here’s something I want to hammer home about VWAP again:

• I don’t buy just because price touches VWAP. A touch isn’t enough.
• Instead, wait for consolidation above the VWAP, then buy strength.
• Stop goes under the recent swing low.

Here’s how I think about it in stages:

1. VWAP Touch: Wait, don’t buy yet.
2. Consolidation: Watch for price to hold above VWAP.
3. Strength Returns: Buy the first sign of real strength (not just a little bounce).
4. Stops: Start under local low, trail up as price shows higher lows.
5. If VWAP fails and price traps underneath, flip your thinking—now it’s a short setup.

Equity Market Gameplan & Sentiment

Let’s shift gears and check out what the broad market is telling us. Here’s what I’m focusing on for the new week:

• SPY, NASDAQ, SEMIS, and RUSSELL 2000: All below declining 5-day moving averages.
• That means: Be a little cautious! Indices are not flashing green for “risk-on” here.

Market Environment

• Headline Risk: Always something new driving headlines, but don’t get caught chasing the noise.
• Risk-Off Vibes: Oil is rallying. Equities are struggling. Crypto is under pressure—hello, risk-off mood.

“The good thing is, we don’t really have the Trump tariff headlines so much now… But when we look at the market overall, it’s telling me we’re in a little bit of a risk off environment.”

Stock-By-Stock Reviews: Subscriber Requests

A bunch of you sent in tickers you wanted me to look at. Let’s run through them and talk setups, stops, and what’s working (or NOT working) right now.

Checklist for New Trades

• Only get involved if you have a clear spot for your stop, backed by recent price structure.
• Rising 50- and 200-day moving averages? Bullish.
• Trouble with 20-day MA or anchored VWAP levels? Be extra careful.

Featured Stock Reviews

1. QXO
   Weekly uptrend: This thing is in a monster uptrend.
   Just ran from $19 to $24 in a couple of days (25% rally).
   If you’re in: Move your stop up under the most recent higher low.
   If not: Too late to chase fresh entries now.
2. Stellantis (STLA)
   Downtrend city: Below all the key weekly moving averages.
   Trouble with April 7th anchor.
   I’d look at it as a possible short, not a buy—wait for strength to fade, then short.
   “Guilty until proven innocent.”
3. HECLA Mining (HL)
   Mining curiosity: Down to the 20- and 200-day moving averages, plus a 50% retracement.
   BUT — no evidence of real buyers stepping up yet.
   If you get a base, then a bounce off $6, maybe that’s your setup with a stop below….

   “You typically want to buy them when they look ugly. So now is probably a good time to buy the stock. The problem is where do you set your stop?”

4. INDV
   Jumped from $9 to $14.50 in a month—huge run!
   Running into prior resistance; might be a failed breakout.
   Current risk/reward not great; play defense if you’re long.
5. Riot (RIOT)
   Crypto-related name.
   Stuck below the declining 5-day MA. Needs to tighten up before any new buys.
   Wait for a higher low and strength before even considering it.
6. HYS
   Tough unless you use wide stops.
   If you’re in, keep moving that stop up under each new low.
7. Shake Shack (SHAK)
   Pulled back Friday after a big run from $123 to $133.
   If looking for an entry, wait for a small pullback and heal-up before jumping in.
8. MTSR
   Bounced 30% in two days after touching anchored VWAPs and 50-day MA.
   Very extended. No rush to buy after that big move. Wait for a base.
9. PERZ
   Giant mess. Lower highs, lots of consolidation—just not doing much.
   Hard pass for now.
10. Venture Global (VG)
    Just got over the IPO anchor early in the month.
    Extended; has doubled recently. Once things pull back, the move could be sharp and deep.
    “Protect yourself as you trail stops up higher.”
11. AMD
    Still has a declining 200-day MA (needs more time).
    Key higher low: Your stop goes below that.
12. DELL
    Trying to push through resistance but just rallied 9% in five days.
    Be careful—it’s late to new entries here.
    Wait for a pullback or base to form.
13. NVO
    Trades overseas, so it gaps all the time—makes risk hard to manage.
    On the weekly chart, it’s in a stage 4 downtrend.
    Stay away until buyers regain control with higher highs and a rising 5-day moving average.
14. Affirm (AFRM)
    Broke above resistance, has a rising 5-day MA.
    Place stop under the recent pullback or higher low.
15. Amazon (AMZN)
    Got stopped out Friday. Not interested until it shows real strength again—could drift to 200-day MA first.
16. UEC (Uranium Energy Corp)
    Making higher highs and higher lows, but running into old resistance.
    Has already rallied 75%.
    Upside likely limited—consider other uranium names like UUUU or CCJ as leaders.
17. CleanSpark (CLSK)
    Another crypto name, battling with the declining 200-day MA.
    Stuck in a choppy, no-man’s-land zone—no compelling setup here.
18. eBay (EBAY)
    Nice consolidation, but it’s faked people out before.
    Ideally, look for a shakeout below the range, touch the 20-day MA, then heal and rally.
    Weekly chart looks poised for a run to all-time highs if it can shake out first.
19. Broadcom (AVGO)
    Showing lower highs but might be doing the shakeout EBAY needs.
    If it pops back above the recent low, look for a base to form, then ride new strength with a stop below the shakeout.
20. Pepsi (PEP)
    Still in a downtrend—below the declining 50-day moving average, range-bound.
    Needs a lot more to get bullish. I’m not a fan.
21. Coinbase (COIN)
    Likely to pull back with the crypto sell-off.
    If it pulls in toward the VWAP off the move, monitor for upside.
22. Zeta (ZETA)
    Structurally broken, repeatedly failing at several weekly moving averages.
    Might see a bounce but likely just to wear out bulls and grind sideways or down.

Parting Thoughts: Managing Risk & Next Steps

Alright, that’s a gauntlet of charts, setups, and trend ideas! If there’s one thing to take away, it’s that risk management is job #1. Here’s a quick recap of key ideas from today:

Rules for the Week

• Don’t buy dips in equities just because something looks “cheap.”
• Always look for strength after a base, especially near VWAP or key moving averages.
• Trail stops up under higher lows—don’t just let gains turn into losses.
• Extended moves can keep going, but risk/reward falls fast. Protect yourself.

“If they don’t scare you out, they’ll typically wear you out.”

As always, treat new weeks as a clean slate. Ignore the noise, focus on price, anchor your risk, and don’t chase. Thanks for joining in!