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Stock Market & Bitcoin Analysis April 4, 2025

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Friday, April 4 – What a brutal week: SPY finished down 9%, semiconductors dropped 15%, and we’re seeing major breakdowns across the board, with the only strength showing up in bonds and Bitcoin. The SPY hit a 50% retracement from the November 2023 low and sliced through multiple key anchored VWAPs—levels of interest, not support—and we even hit a measured move objective I thought might take months. These are institutional-driven selloffs, not your typical dip-buying moments. We remain below declining 5, 20, and 50-day moving averages, which is why I’ve stayed cautious and emphasized short-term trades only. Semiconductors, biotechs, and the Russell 2000 continue to lead the decline, with the latter on pace to retest its 2016 anchor. Nvidia, Tesla, and Palantir are all broken and showing no signs of reversal. Even energy stocks, which showed some promise early in the week, fell apart. There’s no reward in being early here—wait for confirmation of strength, or stay in cash. Bottom line: this is a bear market, and buying dips without evidence of demand is a recipe for disaster.ETF Numbers April 4 2025

4/4/25 Video Notes

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Brian Shannon's weekly swing trading analysis of stocks, crypto, and market structure.

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