S&P 500 Levels & Analysis for 7/28/10

After breaking past 110 on Friday, the SPY has shown a steady pattern of higher highs and higher lows, a break below ~111.00 (also Wednesdays S1 level) would turn the pattern to lower highs and lower lows.  A short term break of support would not be a big concern with a rising 5 DMA and a more significant potential support level at 110, but it would be reason to become more defensive.  That defensive posture would also be prudent because the market has been closing right at the 200 day (black line on inset chart) moving average and the 50% retracement of the high to low range for the year (also on inset chart).  If the market can hold up  in this area it could be setting up for a test of the 113 level which is the basis of the lower high on the weekly timeframe (not shown).  Right now there are a lot of stocks holding up well and that suggests that the market will be able to hold its ground, but as we have seen over the last several weeks, we need to be willing to be flexible with our opinion.