The Market Environment & Headline Risks

Earnings season always brings fireworks, but as Brian points out, this one isn’t exactly a swing trader’s paradise. With volatility ramping up (hello, VIX spike), and headline risks coming in fast, there’s a real need to stay nimble and keep risk management top-of-mind.

Market Dynamics:

• • Sideways and choppy price action means patience is key.
• • Many traders (Brian included) are taking smaller share sizes and slowing things down.
• • Earnings releases create overnight risks—do you stay in a position or hedge with options? That’s a tough call right now.

Brian summed it up with a classic:

“Just be careful with new purchases in here because the earnings aren’t getting rewarded the way they have in previous quarters. We’re very extended, and people are starting to really take this government shutdown seriously in terms of it starting to mess things up in the country.”

Key Takeaways:

• • Patience pays off. Brian emphasized letting others “throw their money away trying to buy the dip and figuring out where the bottom is,” and jumping in only when things settle.
• • Wait for clarity. His “penalty box” analogy—a term from his book stressed again here—means waiting until the “player has rejoined his team” rather than rushing to get involved.
• • Earnings-driven moves can be deceptive. Post-earnings swings are sharp and hard to predict.

Asset Classes in Focus—Tech, Gold, and Crypto

Tech Sector: Running Hot and Cold

• • Trendy names like Nvidia, Meta, Palantir, and Microsoft are making headlines.
• • Even good earnings reports don’t guarantee rebounds.
• • Major moves down after earnings, especially in names like Meta, show how earnings optimism can meet harsh reality.

Brian’s strategy: Avoid trading right at earnings and focus on setups that have already settled after the event.

Gold: A Steady Hand in Turbulence

• • Eyeing dips near the 50-period moving average for GLD.
• • Watching anchored VWAP levels and Fibonacci retracements for important buy zones.
• • Gold showing a possible “capitulation” moment soon; patience is urged before loading up further.

Crypto: The Hunt for Opportunities

• • Ethereum: Down double digits; Brian’s favorite and where he’s scaling in.
  • • Building positions just above $3,000, waiting for a “flush” and rebound.
• • Bitcoin: Testing key VWAP and year-to-date anchor levels.
  • • Looking for violent bounces after undercutting May lows.
• • Solana: Looking “broken” after failing to find buyers; much supply overhead limiting rebound potential.

His advice? Stick to Bitcoin and Ethereum for now and avoid spreading yourself too thin across the crypto space.

Practical Trading Guidance

Every trader has a unique style, and the current market isn’t favorable for all approaches. Brian reinforces these points:

• • Avoid chasing fast moves—especially around earnings or news events.
• • Allow time for assets to settle before acting.
• • Adapt risk controls: scale down trades and tighten stops.
• • Maintain focus and discipline; don’t spread attention too thin across multiple markets.