Hey everyone, welcome to this deep dive on market conditions, stock setups, and key trends going into the week of June 15. In this post, I’ll walk you through current themes in price action, highlight my approach to trade management and risk, and break down the setups for several stocks you asked about—like Palantir, AMD, MP, and plenty more. Grab a coffee, settle in, and let’s get you set up for the trading week!

“You’ve got to listen to price action. But that price action you have to say, in reference to what? And on the intermediate-term timeframe, my best gauge, as you know, is the five day moving average and the direction of it.”

Market Context and Big Picture

Happy Father’s Day to all the dads out there! It’s a holiday-shortened week with the U.S. markets closed on Thursday, so keep that in mind as you shape your trades.

Where Are We Now?

Right now, S&P futures are up a bit as the week opens, but honestly, what happens in Sunday night futures isn’t really what matters. My focus? The big picture. And right now:

• We’re below a declining 5-day moving average on the main indices.
• The overall trend still says “up”—with indices above their 20, 50, and 200-day moving averages.
• That said, recent global macro events and less earnings data means the pace is slowing a bit.

Bottom Line:
Cautious is the right approach. Wait for the market to show its hand before getting aggressive.

Key Moving Averages: What They’re Really Telling Us

5-Day Moving Average

If you’ve listened to me before, you know I never get tired of talking about moving averages—especially the 5-day.

• Rule of Thumb:
  When the market (or a stock) is below a declining 5-day moving average, it makes zero sense to be a buyer.
• Exceptions?
  Of course, there are always exceptions for day traders or scalpers. But for most, being below a declining 5DMA means “be careful.”

Insert a chart showing the S&P500 with its 5, 20, 50, and 200-day moving averages, highlighting price action below the declining 5DMA.

20, 50, and 200-Day Moving Averages

• Fact: We’re still above the rising versions of these MAs.
• Translation: On the daily chart, we’re not in a bear market, just a cautious, possibly sideways phase.
• Read: If price is sitting at or just above these lines after a pullback, you may be looking at support. If you’re late in a trend and price is well above, don’t chase.

Catalysts, Macro News & The Fed

There’s plenty of noise out there: missiles, geopolitics, global events. But at the end of the day—

“We’re here to talk about price action, not about who’s sending missiles at who… what the market tells me is more important than me getting an A on a paper in economics.”

Here’s what’s on deck this week:

• Federal Reserve Announcement (Wednesday): Will the Fed move? Maybe. Will it matter? Price will tell us.
• Jobless Claims (Friday): Worth knowing they’re coming, less worth obsessing over.
• Earnings: We’re into the summer lull. Major earnings don’t really pick up again until the third week of July.

Pro Tip: Don’t let macro headlines distract you from what truly matters—price.

Trade Management: Risk, Position Sizing, and Stock Selection

Whenever you look at a trade, ask yourself:

1. Where has it come from? Where could it realistically go next?
2. Are you early or late to the trade?
3. Is this stock moving with the market, or fighting it?
4. What’s the personality of the stock? Does it move in huge ranges, or grind slowly?
5. How are you sizing your risk?

Position Sizing & Volatility

• If you’re trading a wild, high-ATR (average true range) stock—size down.
• If you’re dealing with a steady grinder, maybe you increase your size.
• If your stock is “bucking the market trend,” trade it if you want, but manage risk aggressively.

Pie chart or bar chart showing different ATR (volatility) levels for stocks mentioned below.

Energy Sector: XLE and What Just Changed

Energy has been the talk of the town. Here’s the evolution of my thinking:

1. I was bearish on energy for months, especially as it kept hammering on key support after the April 7th low.
2. Instead of breaking down, energy (via XLE) rallied. That’s when you’ve got to respect the market’s message.

“We run the possibility from a failed move—failed breakdowns can lead to fast moves in the opposite direction.”

What to Look for in Energy Names

• Failed breakdowns often trap shorts and trigger sharp up-moves.
• Now, many energy stocks are back above key breakdown levels and could make strong runs.

Show XLE weekly chart—highlighting failed breakdown and reversal.

Deep Dives Into Ticker Setups

Now to what everyone’s really here for: the tickers you’ve asked about. Strap in—we’ll cover a lot of ground.

MP Materials (MP)

MP has been on a wild ride.

What happened:

• Prior rally: $21 → $29, gave it all back.
• Most recent run: $19 → $31, with the last $7 happening in just three days.

Risk Notes:

• It’s up nearly 30% in three weeks.
• ATR is 10.6%—this thing moves double digits per day.

Strategy:

• Only for short-term, skilled traders.
• Don’t swing trade unless you’re experienced with wild ranges.

MP intraday price chart with ATR lower panel.

Republic Services (RSG)

RSG has been a reliable uptrend name. Recently:

• Ran from $245 → $255, but not a huge percentage move compared to others.
• Now in “pullback mode”—may head to last week’s VWAP or the 5DMA before resuming up.

No hurry to buy here.
Let pullback play out, watch near key moving averages for support.

Daily chart of RSG with price channels, pullbacks, and moving average highlights.

Quantum Computing (QBTS)

Downtrend city:

• Dropped from $19 → $15 last week.
• Pattern: Lower highs, lower lows, repeated distribution after every spike.

If it can reclaim $16 & hold, maybe it’s neutral. Until then, too volatile and “guilty until proven innocent.”

Volatility Note: 9% ATR.

Pediatrix Medical (MD)

• Lot of back-and-forth/compression.
• Failed breakout was followed by a fast move lower.
• Needs to consolidate at the 50DMA before it becomes interesting again.

Not a buy yet. Wait.

Constellation Energy (CEG)

Looking strong:

• Multiple “anchor handoff” levels showing support.
• Finding buyers at important price zones.

Playbook:

• Consider partial buys above last week’s low.
• Stops under either last week’s or prior pivot low.

CEG chart with anchored VWAPs and buyer support zones highlighted.

UURN

Parabolic FOMO stock:

• Ran from $4 → $14 within a week.
• ATR: 20% (crazy volatility).

Only for nimble day traders. Typically, these “high FOMO” names don’t work out well for late buyers—avoid unless you’re in for a scalp.

Robinhood (HOOD)

• Had a powerful uptrend.
• Now struggling at the 5DMA (which is declining).
• Needs to consolidate and base before another move higher.

Wait for a reset.

Apple (AAPL)

Taking a different tone here:

“I like Apple as a short sale.”

Why?

• $AAPL has struggled with support from the April lows.
• Down 10% ($10) recently.
• Not a “short and get rich” setup, but one to watch for failed bounces towards the 5DMA, then fade any weakness.

Apple daily chart showing failed rallies at 5DMA.

VeriSign (VRSN)

• Broke down from a range, but now back into it.
• Needs a few days to consolidate then could make another run higher.

Best to wait for confirmation.

CrowdStrike (CRWD)

• Consistent uptrend.
• Pulled back to the 20DMA on an earnings gap.
• Some volatility, but looks ready to resume once it settles down for a few days.

BE

• Back above year-to-date anchor.
• Recent surge from $18 → $22.
• Needs to “shake out” weak hands and recover before another move higher.

Watch for a strong shakeout recovery before re-entering.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

One of the most popular.

• Rallied from $77 (April low) to $123.
• Hit the declining 200DMA and pulled back hard, now holding at the 20DMA.

Key Takeaways:

• News was already “in the price”—sold off on positive chip announcements.
• Now putting in lower highs/lows.
• Needs time to consolidate before becoming a strong buy again.
• If it can rebuild and get back above, may set up later in the week, but not a good buy immediately.

AMD multi-timeframe chart (daily and 30-min) showing recent run and reversal at the 200DMA.

LIL

• Ran from $710 to $820 (15%).
• Right at declining 200DMA—likely to see supply/resistance here.
• Later you buy in a trend, the tighter your stop should be.
• Ideally, wait for a pullback and higher low before joining.

HR

• Crushed on Friday.
• Needs to settle and rebuild.
• If you must buy, use a tight stop under Friday’s low, but safer to wait.

KD

• Was making higher highs/lows, but last week saw lower highs/lows.
• Below declining 5DMA and 20DMA.
• Might test/undercut recent support levels.

Not a buy until it stabilizes and reverses up.

Chipotle (CMG)

• Failed breakout above a big resistance/anchor + year-to-date.
• Fast move back down into the range.
• Odds “highly against” a sudden major recovery.
• Best case: sideways chop, possible shakeout, then a better buy opportunity.

GRAIL

• Grinding, steady uptrend but choppy under the surface.
• Not “cleanly” tradable.
• Wait for a calm inside day then buy strength, tight stop.

Adobe (ADBE)

• Got hit hard, now near 50DMA and anchored VWAP from recent low.
• Don’t buy on the first day down, wait at least another day or two for buyers to step up.
• OK to day trade with tight stops (especially intraday moves off VWAP).
• Remain cautious, as broken names sometimes bleed for days (see: UNH chart for comparison).

United Health (UNH)

• Classic example of a big, broken chart that just kept sliding after its first down day.
• Now finding buyers at the anchor from April washout low.
• Reached a key 61.8% retracement of the entire 2009–2024 bull move.
• Longer term, probably “OK” for investors, but as a swing trade needs a base first.

ALAB

• Looks on the edge of breaking key support.
• Pattern: Lower highs, repeated support tests with shorter intervals.
• If support breaks, watch for sharp undercut and bounce (possible “failed breakdown”) for a buy.
• More likely to trap and frustrate late buyers if not careful.
• Don’t buy right at support—wait for confirmation.

Palantir (PLTR)

One of the strongest stocks around:

• Still in a clear uptrend.
• Risk is high after a run from $120 to $140.
• Not a “perfect” swing setup after such a big move; best to wait for a pullback.

RUN

• Recent wild move: $6.50 → $10 in a couple weeks.
• Hard to manage risk—ATR too high.
• Risk/reward is only 1:1 if you chase here.
• Wait for consolidation and a reset before considering.

INSM

• After an event-driven move, watch the anchored VWAP from the gap as your risk zone.
• Buy only if it bounces off that anchor with a stop just below.

RGTI

• Recently very volatile.
• Highs and lows stepping lower; hanging on to support from April.
• Momentum broken—let others try their luck here until it rebuilds.

ALT

• Classic primary downtrend, risky biotech profile.
• Rallies get sold fast.
• Only trade with really tight stops, and don’t overstay.

SOFI

• Has a history of sharp rallies, quick fades, and times when you must wait for rebuilt support before entering.
• Best setups tend to come after the stock consolidates and then resumes strength off a recent higher low.

Final Thoughts & Risk Management Principles

Wrapping up—for almost every ticker above, the lesson is the same:

“Where has it come from? Where does it have the potential to go? Are you early or late? What’s your risk? What’s the personality of the stock?”

Rules to Remember:

• Don’t chase after big moves; wait for pullbacks and consolidations.
• Use tight stops when you’re late or uncertain.
• If a stock is under repeated pressure, either wait for confirmation of support or look for “failed breakdowns” and quick reversals.
• The only absolute in markets: cut your losses.

Stay Connected & Thanks!

Trading is hard—don’t let the news, FOMO, or short-term volatility get to you. Stick to your process, know your risk, and remember: the market always tells the truth in price action.