As a level of support is repeatedly tested, the buyers who were defending that level eventually get worn out as the supply overwhelms demand. When support fails, a new leg lower begins. In a downtrend, this action is to generally be expected, it is part of the process of “lower highs and lower lows.” Of course, trends do change, but to profit consistently we need to align ourselves with the prevailing trend on the timeframes we are most comfortable.

The short to intermediate term trends I discuss here most often are the trends I am most comfortable with and the ones which seem to make the most sense for the volatile environment we are in. These trends continue to be “guilty til proven innocent” and any search for support should be viewed only as “potential” support, not a definitive level the markets will bounce from. It will be difficult to trust any rally attempts while prior support levels act as resistance and the markets are trading below declining 5 day moving averages.

click chart to enlarge