Sidelines

Because of the increased volatility and the HIGH RISK environment we remain in, I have chosen not to post a video with individual stock ideas. A stronger than expected reading on the CPI is providing the reason for a volatile pre market session and the gyrations are likely to continue into the regular session today. Is this a case of the “bad news comes at at lows”? Now that the market has a “reason” for weakness will the shorts be motivated to cover, which in turn could bring sideline cash to the market? While there remains zero technical evidence of a turn in trend, we must keep open minds to trade either side of the market and the reason to get long or short should come from what the market tells us, not what we think should happen. All of the major indicies are within a couple of pennies of their year low and that means that no one has been able to accurately pick a bottom yet. The goal should not be to pick a bottom, but to trade with the trend until there is evidence the trend is turning and then jump on the counter trend move for a quick trade. Right now, I am keeping an eye on the 37.61 level in the QQQQ as a potential turning point and that level will likely change as the market gives us new price data to react to. To see why I think the 37.61 level is an important short term level, view the video below. The main theme I am trying to stress is that the market remains in a severe downtrend and while it is deeply oversold, there is no reason to think the market should turn higher, at least not yet. Until the market gives us evidence of a turn in progress it is best to sit on the sidelines here. If you are trying to pick that turn point, which I will attempt if I see the evidence today, be sure to keep your stops tight and share size reasonable realtive to your account size.